Pachter: Sports Drives T2 Deal for EA; GTA is "Gravy"

Pachter: Sports Drives T2 Deal for EA; GTA is "Gravy"

February 25, 2008
Forget Grand Theft Auto.

According to Wedbush-Morgan analyst Michael Pachter (left), Take Two Interactive's 2K Sports unit alone makes acquiring the company a winning deal for Electronic Arts. Pachter told GamePolitics:
This [$26 offer] is a very fair price. I do not think there's another bidder. I don't think there's any prayer of a bidding war.

Only EA can can make sense of [Take Two's] sports assets. It doesn't makes sense for anybody else to buy Take Two to engage in a battle to the death with EA for sports games, whereas EA can consolidate all the sports games and make a profit from it.

GP: Currently, EA has an exclusive on NFL-licensed games with its Madden series. T2 tried to challenge that last year with All-Pro Football 2K8, but the unlicensed game was a retail dud and garnered poor reviews. Take Two has a third-party exclusive on Major League baseball.
For EA, sports is enough to pay for the whole [$2 billion] thing. If you get rid of sports competition, you suddenly add Take Two's $200 million per year in sports revenue and EA doesn't compete on price anymore. So, theoretically, they could grow that business by $100 million [per year].

Currently [EA and Take Two] compete in pro basketball, college basketball and hockey. So by taking out all of that, EA has a monopoly in sports. If these guys have a monopoly, they're not going to cut pricing on sports games as quickly. We've been seeing sports games come down [in price] before Christmas the last couple of years. That'll never happen again.

That's worth a lot [to EA]. Everything else is gravy. GTA is just gravy...

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Simon...wtf? Just because you're too fat and lazy to play sports doesn't mean the people who buy sports games are idiots. I played professional hockey....and buy sports games regularly, but I'm no idiot. I own my own company and have worked in the industry for more than several years. I know more industry leaders than you can name in a lifetime....and yet I'm an idiot because I buy sports games? Grow up.

And to Pixelantes...you're right about NHL....but if you think NBA Live was better than 2K8 last year....you're delusional. NBA Live was improved...but it still sucked.

And to everyone who says they don't care because it's just sports games. The overall picture is so much bigger than sports games that it's not even funny. Do you really want EA to have that much power....sports genre or not? Their only competition in sports will be Sony....does this not scare you? Wake up! It may start with sports, but pretty soon you will see many other genre's affected because of the lingering waterfall effect that will soon follow.

This is not good people!
T2's stock is already over 26...

Besides don't the anti-monopoly laws apply to game making companies???
IF that did occur EA could shoot prices ot a hundred if they wanted to, as there would be no competition thus no incentive to look like the better product. It does matter how much a corporate exec tries to spin it, that's always ALWAYS bad for the consumer.

Worst part is idiots would still buy it.
Not being a sports fan I don't give a toss about this, but the monopoly aspect is troubling. When one part of the company has a monopoly, it is quite easy for the arrogance to seep into other parts. I'm more worried about EA's trend of milking series, I'd rather not see any more bastardized sequels to BioShock.
@ kurisu

They don't care one bit about what's good for the consumer. EA cares about what's good for EA. See, for a lot of these really big companies the consumer and the free market is an impediment to making money.
@Tom

I know. Thing is, people COULD vote with their wallets and force change and let EA know it won't be stood for, however that is more likely to not work as there are couch jock die hard football fans who would still pay the outrageous price thinking it's a special edition or something
Of course sports is a motivator, because even after EA bought the exclusive rights to the NFL license so they could safely produce crap each year, 2K sports released a new football game (even though it blew hard). But god knows that EA can't suffer competition.

I mean come on, they're EA...
I think Pachter is completely wrong about this.

2K Sports is in its death throws anyway. EA could just as well continue on their own and destroy 2K Sports on its own merits.

2K Sports had a HORRIBLE year last year compared to EA. It was the first year, for example, when both the NHL and NBA games from 2K were clearly inferior to EA's. That hasn't happened in years, if ever.

2K Sports isn't even on the same page on MBA or NFL games. I'm sure everyone remembers the debacle that was MLB 2K7. And Madden, of course, is in its own stratosphere.

Take Two's other properties (Bioshock and Rockstar) are much more valuable than the clusterf*** that is 2K Sports.
While 2KSports does indeed suck balls, they *are* the only real competition for EA sports...

*sigh*

I'm very glad I've never really liked sports games, cos if I did this wud prolly annoy me a lot more
Hmm. Idiots buy sports games -> Sports games go up in price -> Idiots cease buying expensive sports games and start buying good games -> Idiots cease being idiots -> Public perception of gaming goes up?

Yeah, I know, it's a pipe dream. But I've been playing Pipe Dreams since '89. (And Blades of Steel for almost as long.)
@Pixelantes Anonymous -- I don't buy the MLB or NBA games, but couldn't one argue that the presence of competition has finally made EA sit up and put a little bit of actual effort into their sports games? Madden has absolutely sucked for years now. From what I saw, the EA NBA 2006 was an absolute fiasco.

Also, 2k Sports and EA are about to compete in boxing titles, as well. Fight Night Round 4 was just announced by EA (the last version of that game stunk), and 2k has been working on Don King's Prizefighter.
so EA is trying to expand it's control over the market furthur.

EA will make a new Madden instead of crossing out the 07 and writing 08 and upping the price back up to 60 dollars. but this time there will be absolutely no competition instead of just a little bit.

monopolies are bad for consumers.

plus EA will just drive the IP's into the ground. i'm calling it now
Bioshock 7 by 2011.
Re: Simon...What Toshiro said!

@Dog_Welder...that's what I'm guessing, but then shouldn't the reverse be true too? 2K Sports' games have been in the decline, a serious decline for about two years now. If I were to guess why that is, I'd guess they have serious problems attracting talent to work on those titles. You can see that from the production values on the 2K titles compared to EA's. The user interface and the "glitch" isn't anywhere close to the quality of EA's. 2K got the game engine and online play usually pretty solid (MLB 2K7 was a notable exception), but everything else in their games have always been sub-standard compated to EA.

Regardless it doesn't really matter as far as this business dispute goes. I think EA could crush 2K Sports without expensive hostile takeover. I think it'd be cheaper, and the end result (total monopoly on AAA sports titles) would be the same.
Another thing Pachter doesn't realize.

Some of the 2K Sports fanboys, and I've been one of the most rabid ones...but I'm getting better, thanks to 2K Sports worsening quality, would never, ever, ever buy an EA sports game. They'd rather have tooth picks stuck under their nails.

Obviously that's not 100% of the 2K sports games fans, but nevertheless, the revenue "switch" wouldn't be at 100% from 2K to EA once 2K is finished (or owned by EA).

I know I would NOT buy an EA owned 2K Sports title, even if they paid me to do it, assuming EA would keep the 2K Sports franchises, which I seriously doubt.
I don't see why 2K Sports would be the main focus of the deal. It has been getting worse as the years add on, and they have no footing in american football at all because of the EA exclusitivity deal. So really, what's the point of trying to get 2K Sports? Just let it slowly die.
I never liked gravy. That stuff is gross.

"Meh" to Pachter. I never understood industry analysts, because it's not very often that I see them say something that's actually right. Maybe I only happen to be paying attention at the wrong times or something.
Ah yes, because what EA exactly needs right now are more sports titles.
I'm not a big fan of sports games but regardless of the genre, EA having a monopoly is NOT a good thing.
Honestly, who the hell listens to Patcher? When has he ever been right in his Crystal Ball fore tellings?
I gotta agree with Mr. Takahashi here.

Think, if EA Games was able to gain a monopoly in sports games (I personally don't care much for sports), what's gonna stop them from trying to monopolize other genres? I can imagine them trying to gain a foothold in FPS titles next. I can see it now...

"EA buys gaming licenses for Heckler & Koch"

Bastards.
Stromlancer: NBA 2K8 out-sold Live '08 two to one.
I believe there is a law against monopolies? Maybe, like the Clayton Anti-Trust Act, maybe. Its only been around since Teddy Roosevelt, so I guess it doesn't matter.
That pertains to Monopolies of entire industry. Say like Pennsylvania Steel works suddenly bought out every other steel manufacturer in the United States, that would be a monopoly. Cornering the market in Sports gaming is not a monopoly. Because it's not the entire Gaming Market being monopolized.
Why is everyone concerned about crappy bioshock sequels? Bioshock WAS a crappy sequel *points to System Shock*


Sad thing is, EA owns enough of System shock to send cecse and desists.
All this talk of an EA monopoly in sports is nonsense. Codemasters puts out great sports games.
Whoops! I would've come back to respond to those spurious claims sooner, but I was busy shoring up our undermanned midfield and scoring a goal for the company soccer team. Fair enough, Toshiro, you're not an idiot for enjoying the annual procession of same-system-new-roster sports games; you're an idiot for immediately assuming that I must be some sort of listless couch potato because I took a more whimsical view of the situation instead of immediately toeing the local party line. But hey, my apologies for omitting the qualifier that sports games are also purchased by good, intelligent, hardworking Americans.

By the way, congrats on moving into a pro hockey career -- you were great in "Revenge of the Nerds!"
Actually, EA may not have a true economic monopoly with Madden, but have a monopoly in the sense of the political discourse definition... "a blanket generalization in criticism of firms with large market share or lack of what's perceived as 'fair' competition." It's the same sort of monopoly that Microsoft was accused of. This situation is very much true.

Though I don't think that the sports deal is the only thing driving the T2 deal. I think the merge and formation of Activision Blizzard is what's driving this whole mess. According to their own statements, AB stands to become the largest company in the biz after the merger. Apparently EA believes them. I can't blame them for wanting to acquire T2 to keep up with their competition.

Though that doesn't mean I'm rooting for them. I'm as excited about this merger attempt as I was when Bill Gates claimed he wanted to purchase Nintendo... not at all.
[...] Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post. Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL. « ReiBred’s idol ofthe day… [...]
[...] While this is a pretty big deal to the industry as a whole, why should you care? Aside from the obvious prize of Grand Theft Auto 4, Take Two also brings much more to the table for EA, as well as for consumers. Consider that 2K sports, EA’s main competition in the sports fields where it hasn’t obtained a licensed monopoly, is a subsidiary of Take Two. Michael Patcher believes that this is the real impetus behind the acquisition bid, and that GTA4 is simply the cherry on top. If EA is successful in its bid, they will essentially have no competition in the sports arena, which will undoubtedly be bad news for consumers. Do you think that EA will manage to pull this one off? If they do, how serious an impact will this be on the industry as a whole? [...]
@Baine

Thank you. This is the exact point I try to bring up whenever some brings up the term "monopoly" as regards NFL's exclusive license with EA.

A monopoly is the state that exists when only one company controls the sale of a commodity.

NFL video games are not a commodity. Football video games are not a commodity. Sports video games are not a commodity. Video games, arguably, are.

But, in no way shape or form does EA have a monopoly over video games as a whole.

And even with the idea of a Take Two/EA merger, there could still be competition even for football games. Midway's Blitz: The League is just one example. Of course, they have to be GOOD games, but that's up to those other companies.

If the merger did happen, I really wouldn't mind if a lot of the innovation in NFL 2K were pumped into Madden... 2K was a great game, and 2K5 still has features that Madden 08 doesn't (such as my roommate and I often complain about Madden's inability to challenge a play based on our choice of aspects rather than the aspect Madden chooses for us. Some plays we can't challenge at all.)
[...] There have been two primary complaints coming out of Take-Two regarding the buyout offer: 1) the amount undervalues Take-Two’s worth and 2) the offer seems timed to unfairly take advantage of the Grand Theft Auto 4 launch. With a bid approaching nearly twice the pre-offer price of TTWO (approximately $17), such an extravagant offer would seem to address the first issue. As for the second issue, I’m not certain that the launch of GTA4 is the focus of EA’s bid. As has been discussed previously here and by analysts, with 2k Sports under EA control, the combined entity would hold an effective monopoly over sports video games. That premium stock price might end up being quite the bargain for EA. [...]
[...] Gamepolitics got a similar response from Pachter: Only EA can can make sense of [Take Two’s] sports assets. It doesn’t makes sense for anybody else to buy Take Two to engage in a battle to the death with EA for sports games, whereas EA can consolidate all the sports games and make a profit from it. [...]
[...] GP: Blankenship is referring to comments Pachter made to GamePolitics in a report from February 25th. See: Pachter: Sports Drives T2 Deal for EA; GTA is “Gravy”. Blankenship explains: Until 2004, I worked in a division of the FTC that spent a lot of instance looking at technology-related mergers… I plus have every reason to suspect that my former colleagues would give that deal a hard look, particularly in light of Mr. Pachter’s comments, of which I’m certain they’re aware. …whether a government agency has problems with a merger, it’s likely considering it believes the economic goods supports a narrowly defined market (e.g., licensed professional hockey videogames or hockey videogames). The parties to the merger will argue to define the market more broadly (e.g., videogames as a whole, or sports videogames as a whole)… [...]
Re: Pachter: Sports Drives T2 Deal for EA; GTA is "Gravy"

Its funny now reading all this about EA. Shame now they are getting sued. Ah oh well. Be a good corporation and play by the rules. Try something different!

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