Pachter: EA-T2 Deal Turning from Hostile to Friendly
Pachter: EA-T2 Deal Turning from Hostile to Friendly
August 18, 2008
As we mentioned in the previous story, EA released some surprising info today:
- it will not renew its tender offer (expiring at midnight) to buy T2 shares at $25.74
- EA and T2 have been talking, with T2 preparing a secret presentation for EX execs
For expert analysis we turned to Michael Pachter (left) of Wedbush-Morgan who told GP:
It appears that EA is proceeding with a friendly deal. The two companies exchanged letters over the weekend, with EA saying the offer price would require review (meaning they are inclined to go lower) because the deal cannot be completed before the holidays. Take-Two's response was an offer of due diligence, including the presentation of non-public information under a non-disclosure agreement, intended to support a higher value.
EA accepted the offer of a presentation, and intends to allow its hostile tender offer to expire. This merely changes the proposal from hostile to friendly, and keeps the pressure on the FTC to rule by Thursday, as previously expected.
My guess is that the parties reach an accommodation shortly at a $1 - 2 premium to EA's current $25.74 offer. We have said this consistently since February 25, and continue to believe a deal gets done this month. If Take-Two management holds out for a price in the $30s, EA will go hostile again, likely at a price closer to $20. If Take-Two management negotiates a price below $27.50, I think a deal gets done.
The only surprise to me is that EA agreed to go friendly. I suppose that they figured it was magnanimous to make the attempt, and Take-Two management recognized that this was its last and only opportunity to affect the outcome. I really expect the parties to reach an agreement close to the $25.74 price (slightly above).
I do not expect EA to be impressed with the presentation, which will include a 3-year release schedule and a list of cost control initiatives, but believe that it will allow TTWO management to save face. EA is unconcerned about cost control, since it will eliminate most operating expense once Take-Two is integrated, and should not be particularly surprised to learn that GTA 5 and BioShock 2 are planned.
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Posted 11/07/09 at 04:27pm
ZippyDSMlee: man I got alot of junk and dup files too >< god I need orginization...and no not the knee capping media mafia kind :P
ZippyDSMlee: man I got alot of junk and dup files too >< god I need orginization...and no not the knee capping media mafia kind :P
Posted 11/07/09 at 04:26pm
ZippyDSMlee: replaced :P
ZippyDSMlee: replaced :P
Posted 11/07/09 at 04:23pm
ZippyDSMlee: beemoh:hey its like 60GB porn,400GB anime 100GB games and crap I have took from all my DVDs, I hate waiting on dvds to install stuff..... oh and 40GB of my porn was in the found.000 folder...mostly corrupted.... least I got names of wut needs to be repa
ZippyDSMlee: beemoh:hey its like 60GB porn,400GB anime 100GB games and crap I have took from all my DVDs, I hate waiting on dvds to install stuff..... oh and 40GB of my porn was in the found.000 folder...mostly corrupted.... least I got names of wut needs to be repa
Posted 11/07/09 at 04:18pm
beemoh: @Zip: ...and you'd have to spend all that time re-downloading that porn?
beemoh: @Zip: ...and you'd have to spend all that time re-downloading that porn?
Posted 11/07/09 at 03:34pm
ZippyDSMlee: ggrrrrr......vista lost one of my hard drives and I had a heart attack thinking I lost 1TB of data....
ZippyDSMlee: ggrrrrr......vista lost one of my hard drives and I had a heart attack thinking I lost 1TB of data....
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:58am
JDKJ: Which could be explained by both (a) and (b).
JDKJ: Which could be explained by both (a) and (b).
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:56am
Austin_Lewis: JDKJ: You forgot C) the fact that, for some reason, every time he did something that would suggest he shouldn't be in the military, let alone an officer, higher ups ignored it or let it slide.
Austin_Lewis: JDKJ: You forgot C) the fact that, for some reason, every time he did something that would suggest he shouldn't be in the military, let alone an officer, higher ups ignored it or let it slide.
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:51am
JDKJ: Part of the problem is, I believe, that (a) the Army had a lot of time and money already invested in him and which they were unwilling to simply write-off and (b) an increasing need for the type of skills and services he provided.
JDKJ: Part of the problem is, I believe, that (a) the Army had a lot of time and money already invested in him and which they were unwilling to simply write-off and (b) an increasing need for the type of skills and services he provided.
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:48am
JDKJ: And that even if he was begging not to get cut loose, he was apparently a real good candidate for being cut loose, anyway.
JDKJ: And that even if he was begging not to get cut loose, he was apparently a real good candidate for being cut loose, anyway.
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:11am
JDKJ: @chada: And while Kennedy once noted that there's usually more than enough blame for everyone to get a slice, the possibility that the Army was unwilling to cut loose someone who was asking to get cut loose could be a factor.
JDKJ: @chada: And while Kennedy once noted that there's usually more than enough blame for everyone to get a slice, the possibility that the Army was unwilling to cut loose someone who was asking to get cut loose could be a factor.
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:07am
ZippyDSMlee: *noms on his feet*..nomnomnomnom*droooll* ...wuuutttttt uuu looking at?
ZippyDSMlee: *noms on his feet*..nomnomnomnom*droooll* ...wuuutttttt uuu looking at?
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:05am
JDKJ: I'm no psychologist, but I'm told that crazy people have a tendency to do crazy things.
JDKJ: I'm no psychologist, but I'm told that crazy people have a tendency to do crazy things.
Posted 11/07/09 at 10:03am
chadachada321: Whoops, was out of the convo for awhile. I do wonder what type of ammo he used etc, but the real issue is WHY he did it, not HOW
chadachada321: Whoops, was out of the convo for awhile. I do wonder what type of ammo he used etc, but the real issue is WHY he did it, not HOW
Posted 11/07/09 at 09:56am
JDKJ: But if it turns out that they actually did, they'll have Hell to pay.
JDKJ: But if it turns out that they actually did, they'll have Hell to pay.
Posted 11/07/09 at 09:45am
JDKJ: And I'd tend to rule out the possibilty of FN Herstal supplying restricted ammunition to someone merely because they're ordering it from a military base.
JDKJ: And I'd tend to rule out the possibilty of FN Herstal supplying restricted ammunition to someone merely because they're ordering it from a military base.
Posted 11/07/09 at 09:37am
JDKJ: I know you don't leave your gated community and get around much in dark alleys, so you may be surprised to learn that there's this thing called "the black market" where, if you've got enough money, ain't too much of anything which can't be bought.
JDKJ: I know you don't leave your gated community and get around much in dark alleys, so you may be surprised to learn that there's this thing called "the black market" where, if you've got enough money, ain't too much of anything which can't be bought.
Posted 11/07/09 at 09:36am
Austin_Lewis: Or, maybe he or someone else at the base ordered the SS190 from FN Herstal.
Austin_Lewis: Or, maybe he or someone else at the base ordered the SS190 from FN Herstal.
Posted 11/07/09 at 09:32am
Austin_Lewis: the hands of private owners. They run about 300 dollars minimum for a box of 50, and boxes of AP 5.7 are extremely scarce, mainly residing in the hands of Class III stores or individuals who for one reason or another got a demo box of it.
Austin_Lewis: the hands of private owners. They run about 300 dollars minimum for a box of 50, and boxes of AP 5.7 are extremely scarce, mainly residing in the hands of Class III stores or individuals who for one reason or another got a demo box of it.
Posted 11/07/09 at 09:30am
Austin_Lewis: There are other firearms that fire the 5.7. However, I too would like to know where he got the ammo and what kind was used. Maybe Hasan, planning not to live through this, went out and bought one the boxes of SS190 that are floating around in
Austin_Lewis: There are other firearms that fire the 5.7. However, I too would like to know where he got the ammo and what kind was used. Maybe Hasan, planning not to live through this, went out and bought one the boxes of SS190 that are floating around in
Posted 11/07/09 at 08:44am
JDKJ: And it isn't yet clear what type of ammunition Hasan used. It's strange that he purchased a gun but didn't purchase ammunition for it at the same place and time. Especially because the calibre required is peculiar to the actual gun.
JDKJ: And it isn't yet clear what type of ammunition Hasan used. It's strange that he purchased a gun but didn't purchase ammunition for it at the same place and time. Especially because the calibre required is peculiar to the actual gun.
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Comments
There's gotta be something wrong with T2, there HAS to be. I would never invite my neighbor, who happens to be my mortal enemy, into my house to check out some of the new underwear I recently purchased for my wife. The fact that T2 is giving EA a first hand look at their top secrect products is nuts. So what if EA doesn't bite??? Then what?? Then if you DO have something new and interesting in the works(especially in the sports genre)EA can now plan a way to bite off some of your work!! I wouldn't do it if I were T2.
I never would have destroyed everything of mine if I was T2, and bring EA into the house first, then blow it up with EA inside of it.... Maybe that is their plan... but I don't see how they would do that...
Copy and Pasted where appropriate:
As far as sports games are concerned I couldn't Give f-, I think the only one I have is Fight Night round 3, and thats an EA game, so I won't be too concerned about EA monopolising a scene that doesn't interest me, however if they start putting the hurt on GTA, then I will be angry!
This one still reckons EAPartners is the way to go for smaller developers, you know, keep your friends close and your enemies closer?
Your soul is a tasty refreshing treat to ones such as I
Damn you EA. Keep away from Take 2. I don't want GTA 5 or Bioshock 3 to be developed by some crappy studio just because they want a games more frequently. I also don't want to pay extra for unlocking weapons and such.
sorry for the multiple posts. don't know how i did that.
This is the same Pachter who said that the deal would go through without a hitch from the very beginning right? And now he's quoting existing news on a potential deal and acting as if it's his own insider information? Unreal...
The same guy who said the ps3 would fail. I don't listen to video game analysts that much considering they are so innacurate.
Eh, I kinda consider the ps3 a fail, but that's my own personal opinion.
I considered the 360 better till it rroded. Kind of like Sony better now because they don't nickel and dime us that much.
"The same guy who said the ps3 would fail. I don't listen to video game analysts that much considering they are so innacurate."
Sony are in last place... accurate enough for me
Wasn't the the original Xbox leagues behind the ps2? As far as I can see, the only reason the xbox 360 triumphs is based on 3 important things; online multiplayer, a lower sticker price, and a small head start.
I am not saying the the ps3 is better, I love Halo online, just don't act like you know something about a business that tends to change more than the tides...
I could go on but I'd rather not change the subject.
this also includes to everyone who thinks the ps3 over the 360.
Just enjoy playing games on your system, DAMN IT!!
With decent titles, EA sucks as a conglomerate as much as a succubus sucks the life out of men. So there...
ps3 vs 360? meh, nintendo won that fight imo.
EA eats and guts another dev house publisher, all is well with the world...
I is fuzzy brained mew =^^=
http://zippydsmlee.wordpress.com/
(in need of a bad overhaul)
Not bad blog... Submit feedreader... free pc games
We have said this consistently since February 25, and continue to believe a deal gets done this month.
No, you've said that it'd go off without a hitch, then you've consistently said that Take Two would cave to EA.
The only surprise to me is that EA agreed to go friendly. I suppose that they figured it was magnanimous to make the attempt, and Take-Two management recognized that this was its last and only opportunity to affect the outcome.
No, I'd say this is EA finally realizing months later that their offer simply wasn't good enough. That if they wanted to buy out T2, they were going to have to actually negotiate for it; as opposed to their arrogant buyout offer that clearly the majority of T2 and it's shareholders felt was too low.
I do not expect EA to be impressed with the presentation, which will include a 3-year release schedule and a list of cost control initiatives, but believe that it will allow TTWO management to save face. EA is unconcerned about cost control, since it will eliminate most operating expense once Take-Two is integrated, and should not be particularly surprised to learn that GTA 5 and BioShock 2 are planned.
1) I'm certain that T2's got more than GTA 5 and BioShock 2 planned. Probably an expansion or two for GTA4, various other games, and I'm certain that EA would be interested in the planned time table for release.
2) Unless EA is planning on firing all of Take Two's staff, they will be concerned about cost controls. Money doesn't grow on trees, and no executive will be willing to pay a high price for a company that doesn't have good measures in place to keep expeditures down.
This isn't a matter of Take Two's management saving face, it's a matter of EA admitting they screwed up and starting on negotiating down Take Two's price like they should have back at the start of May.
-Gray17
Hmm, this might possibly be just a presentation to say "We have a good thing going, we do NOT want you messing it up. Good day, and don't let the door hit you on the way out."
As said, in truth, there are really only two parties who want this to happen. EA, and a soon to be disbarred lawyer.
I swore off EA when they cancelled Earth and Beyond...
I am so tired of EA and their constant attempt to gobble up any gaming firm in their site.
Anyone remember when Maxis and Bullfrog were names of companies not just offshoots of the EA monster.
Like someone else said I could care less about their monopoly of sports games, I mean to be honest the best sports games I ever played were Mutant League Football on the Sega, and Blades of Steel/Tecmo Bowl on the NES. I just dont want them to ruin what T2 has going for them right now.
Remember Ultima? Pretty good 'open' adventure Game.
Then EA bought it. The next release was buggy as hell and seriously damaged the reputation of the series.
I see history repeating itself.
two words i think of when i think about EA.... EMASCULATED Arts, its going to make T2 a Strombli (i.e. a bull without balls), to think if JT wanted join in on the hostile takeover too!
He did by selling the stock he supposedly had, calling it "overpriced".
Likely had the belief that his selling it would cause a landslide or something
I don't give a fuck about GTA, but I don't want all the people who do to have to suffer because of EA and their goddamn conquest. Oh, and I also believe that Final Fantasy 7 predicted EA's evil rise with their depiction of the Shinra corporation.
-Entertainment isn't the reason the world sucks. It's the reason we know the world sucks. For information on games and psychology, look up: Jonathan Freedman(2002)Block & Crain(2007)Grand Theft Childhood, by Harvard researchers Larry Kutner&Cheryl Olson
ironically, Square was with EA for a while around that time
岩「…Ace beats Jack」
yeah, i had a sick dream of a GTA4/FF7 and a messy shot of Condemned 2 style remix... execpt without the turn based attack b.s.
FTC please block this merger. We'll give you a fruit basket.
It's amazing watching Pachter back-pedal, I must admit.
Of course EA'd go friendly. There's no downside. T2 going friendly may be more of a last-ditch effort by management to hold their positions (have those management warrants vested yet?), or it may be a play for time. Or, it may very well be an excellent bet that the FTC is going to come down on this one with conditions, such as a sports spin-off. EA gets the non-sports IP and studios, but T2 or a successor entity takes whatever needs to be spun off. Assuming, of course, that EA wants to push through when confronted with such conditions.
Well remember when EA bought Virgin back in the day? What was the first thing they did? They canceled Thrilll Kill after it had already been completed, packaged, boxed, and shipped. The stores were told to not open the boxes and return them.
I can see the same thing happening with Manhunt or GTA 5 or even Max Payne 3, maybe not a banning or cancellation. But more of a severe editing makeover not in our favor. Just be prepared for anything.
stop quoting pachter. he's a turd burgling cock monkey.
excuse my french.