Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke Nukem Forever Sales

July 6, 2011 -

While LA Noire has proven to be a decent tile for Take-Two, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter says that the poor showing of Duke Nukem Forever has eaten away at those profits. In a note to investors today, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter lowered his expectation for Take-Two's quarterly revenues, saying that bad performance from Gearbox Studios' Duke Nukem Forever have offset the stronger-than-expected sales of Rockstar's L.A. Noire.

"We had previously expected Duke to be one of the year's top sellers due to a high degree of hype and a dedicated fan base, and expected solid profit contribution as the bulk of development had been previously expensed," Pachter told investors. "However, the game's poor reviews (average Metacritic score of 49) likely had a negative impact on sales, causing us to lower our [first quarter] sell-in estimate to 1.5 million units from 3 million units."

Examining L.A. Noire, Pachter said that he expected the game to ship 3.5 million copies, but had to adjust that figure after Take-Two revealed that 4 million copies had shipped to retail outlets.

That extra half-million or so copies of L.A. Noire were not enough to offset the poor performance from Duke Nukem Forever. Because of those factors, Pachter revised his revenues estimates for Take-Two's quarter to $350 million, down from $375 million.

Source: GameSpot


Comments

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

 "However, the game's poor reviews (average Metacritic score of 49) likely had a negative impact on sales, causing us to lower our [first quarter] sell-in estimate to 1.5 million units from 3 million units."

i.e. The fact that we made a bad game has nothing to do with the fact that it didn't sell. It must be the fault of those damn reviewers and metacritic. *sigh* When will they learn?

 

I hate broccoli/ and think it totally sucks/ Why isn't it meat?

I hate broccoli/ and think it totally sucks/ Why isn't it meat?

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

That's the problem. It's not a bad game. It's actually a really good game. I honestly don't know what kind of stick the reviewers have up their asses. Maybe they're too hopped up on CoD or Halo. I wrote my own review for it. Link below.

 

"And though we may pledge fanboy allegiances to different flags, deep down inside we all serve one master, one king. And his name... is GAMING! FOREVER MAY HE REIGN!"

http://www.examiner.com/video-games-in-atlanta/mike-chrysler

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

First off Grif, nice review. I've never been good at articulating the details of why I like/dislike a game all that well. But I do want to point out a couple of things.

One; your 15/20 score would be a 75 on metacritic, which doesn't seem like a great score, when compared to the text of the review. It's one of the reasons why I've never cared for the number scale on meta. I've been a fan of the * of 5 score and while a 4/5 is considered a really good game, at 80 on meta  it looks like a b-.

Two; I think a quote from your article shows the split between our thoughts on the game. "All of the old-school, one-dimensional, nostalgic charm from 1996 is there, preserved in all its glory." While that might have been a plus for you, it's didn't really click for me. I remember playing Duke ages ago and thought it was TNBTSSB. I've played Duke 3D a little before Forever came out to get ready for it, but (granted this is just my opionion) it didn't age well. In fact, it might've even soured my thoughts when I started playing Forever. To me Duke is kinda like Bulletstorm, a mechanically sound game, wrapped in a juvenile mentality that I just don't have or care for anymore. Maybe I've become the grumpy old prinny I used to joke about, but for me, it didn't click.

 

I hate broccoli/ and think it totally sucks/ Why isn't it meat?

I hate broccoli/ and think it totally sucks/ Why isn't it meat?

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

Thanks for the encouragement on my review. I appreciate all feedback, whether good, bad, or indifferent.

Firstly, I'm aware my scale is rather... unique, and it would be easy to just condense it to a 5-point scale, but I don't do this for two reasons:

A) I don't even use the scale itself to gauge whether a game is good or bad, it's just a visual guideline. I could give a game a 10 overall, and it could still be pretty good. (Take a look at my Splinter Cell 3D review)

B) There are some aspects to a game that some gamers hold more value over than others. For me, it's gameplay. I would much rather play an ugly game that's fun than a pretty game that sucks. If I gave a game a 5 on gameplay and a 1 on everything else, it would still be a good game for me. For others, visuals or audio may be more important, while some people prefer a great storyline. That's why I rate the aspects individually to make a 20-point scale, rather than an altogether 5-point scale. I try my best to cater to as many people's tastes as I can, rather than just focusing on whether I personally think it's a good game or not.

Also, that's another thing wrong with our gaming society nowadays. We see scores of 7-7.5, and see that as a failure. Like hellfire and I were talking about above, everyone's too concerned with games being a (game title)-killer that they can't see a game for what it is. Which is where I think most other reviewers screwed up when they did Duke Nukem. Did you know PC Gamer gave Duke an 80/100?

I think we need to put failure closer to the 3-4 mark, with 5 being considered "Average", not great, not horrible, but playable. We don't need to say a game sucks just because it's not GOTY material.

Chaos Legion comes to mind.

Lastly, it's okay if I like something about a game, and you don't. Everyone has their own tastes. I, myself, am pleased that they kept just about everything from Duke Nukem 3D. Sure, there's some things I would have done different, but if I wanted an experience like Call of Duty or Battlefield, I would play Call of Duty or Battlefield. But hey, we all grow up, grow out,  and sometimes our expectations change.

Anyway, thanks again for the feedback. If you want, you can look at my other reviews, and you can send me e-mail requests to review a specific game. If you subscribe to me, it'll send you an e-mail alert whenver I publish something.

(Shameless plug end)

 

 

"And though we may pledge fanboy allegiances to different flags, deep down inside we all serve one master, one king. And his name... is GAMING! FOREVER MAY HE REIGN!"

http://www.examiner.com/video-games-in-atlanta/mike-chrysler

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

I noticed that. I mean, I played it and thought it was awesome. I too think the problem is too many were expecting another Halo or Call of Duty clone.

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

That's the problem. Nobody wants to see games on their own merits. It always has to be compared to other games. It always has to be the next Call of Duty, Halo, Battlefield, Final Fantasy 7, Zelda, or Mario. As far as most peple are concerned, if it isn't some well-known franchise with billions of fans, it sucks.

I say, if you want Call of Duty, then play Call of Duty. If you want Final Fantasy 7, play Final Fantasy 7. If you want Mario, play Mario. Just don't come crying and say a game is horrible because it's not a carbon copy of (insert favorite franchise here).

 

 

"And though we may pledge fanboy allegiances to different flags, deep down inside we all serve one master, one king. And his name... is GAMING! FOREVER MAY HE REIGN!"

http://www.examiner.com/video-games-in-atlanta/mike-chrysler

Re: Pachter: Surprising LA Noire Sales Offset by Bad Duke ...

That's why I don't get excited when a game is claimed ot be a "<game> killer."

Instead of worrying about dethroning the king, just worry about making a good game.

 
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