Analyst: Declining Zynga User Activity 'Extremely Troubling'

October 27, 2011 -

Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz says that the continued user decline in various Zynga games on Facebook is "extremely troubling."

"Three of the five recent launches ('Empires & Allies', 'Pioneer Trail', and 'Adventure World') have suffered 40%+ DAU drops off their post-launch peaks, while 'Mafia Wars 2', launched two weeks ago, is already showing signs of having peaked. We think the lack of user growth at Zynga - which is really a two-year old problem - could cause issues ahead of a potential IPO in November, particularly given an expected rich valuation," he said.

Of course Facebook recently changed the way it counts Daily and Monthly Active users, so that is changing the number of users dramatically - at least in the last couple of weeks. Still, even new titles aren't helping to stop the player drop off on Zynga's games. As Creutz points out, newer games are "largely cannibalizing users from old titles, and failing to attract new users to Zynga’s portfolio."

Creutz goes into detail on why user drop-off may prove to be a serious problem for Zynga - particularly because the company is moving towards going public soon:

"At least as disturbing has been the degree to which new launches have begun rolling over almost immediately after the initial launch. Three of the five games (Empires & Allies, Pioneer Trail, and Adventure World) are already down more than 40% from peak DAU levels. Mafia Wars 2 hit a DAU peak 8 days after launch and has gone sideways for the last week; while it is very early in the game’s lifecycle, we view this as a bad sign, particularly given that Empires & Allies, Pioneer Trail, and Adventure World hit peak levels between 5 and 18 days after the initial launch. Only Words With Friends has enjoyed sustained DAU growth (and we note that this was a Facebook port of a popular mobile game that Zynga acquired, i.e. not developed internally at Zynga). In sum, we view the user trends at Zynga as extremely troubling given the apparent lack of organic growth, particularly in front of an IPO that continues to be talked about at rich valuations in the $10B range."

Source: IndustryGamers


Comments

Re: Analyst: Declining Zynga User Activity 'Extremely Troubling'

I've been told that Facebook Gaming is mainly an American thing?

Re: Analyst: Declining Zynga User Activity 'Extremely Troubling'

This is where investors take missteps. They look at a company like Zygna with out understanding deeply the industry they are in and the product they sell. Zygna games have largely been ripped off, simple games that keep people hooked with skinner box tricks and nothing else. They are not the kinds of games that keep people coming back for more.

Online, mobile, and free to play games are seeing a huge explosion with a lot of developers and publishers putting out games of MUCH higher quality that what Zygna currently offers. Unless Zygna can hire some talented developers they are going to be a foot note in gaming history.

Re: Analyst: Declining Zynga User Activity 'Extremely Troubling'

"Troubling"?  It's fantastic news for fans of real games.

Re: Analyst: Declining Zynga User Activity 'Extremely Troubling'

The only group of people which it would be troubling for would be those that didn't see the Zynga style "game" bubble popping anytime soon.  If anything, I'm surprised that it didn't pop sooner due to the semi recession.

Though, the consoles and PCs did see one released recently called Skylanders: Spyro's Adventures.  You'll need at least 40 bucks on top of the 70 bucks for 2 more levels, plus any other extra figures (8 a pop) to cover any element holes that are in the 20 buck 3 figure + Level pack.  And from what I've heard, it gets pretty arm twisty in letting you know that you need moar figures just like it gets pretty arm twisty in some Ville games (Frontierville I've seen it happen in) saying you need moar friends  for things

 
Forgot your password?
Username :
Password :

Poll

Whose next half decade of superhero films are you most looking forward to?:

Shout box

You're not permitted to post shouts.
ZippyDSMleeConster:Some PSP games are 10-20$, you can buy a few then rip them yourself or find an ISO. The emu is PPSSPP.I'm I the only one that hates crisis core?10/31/2014 - 11:28am
ConsterZippy: uh, thanks? Don't know any PSP games, though.10/31/2014 - 10:10am
ZippyDSMleehttp://arstechnica.com/business/2014/10/fcc-reportedly-close-to-reclassifying-isps-as-common-carriers/10/31/2014 - 9:44am
ZippyDSMleesomewhat ammuseing, http://www.ultimate-guitar.com/news/general_music_news/metallica_ask_fans_for_help_with_two_new_reissues.html10/31/2014 - 9:25am
Neo_DrKefkaAnyone remember that portrait from Resident Evil 1 in the gallery about a Middle Aged man full of worries? Anyone know the name of that portrait?10/31/2014 - 12:45am
MechaTama31Yeah, don't see myself getting a Vita or a PSTV...10/31/2014 - 12:04am
E. Zachary KnightWatch Ultron ruin all your Disney childhood memories in this How The Ultron Teaser Should Have Ended. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra1sBRLRFtc10/30/2014 - 9:23pm
ZippyDSMleeConster:they finally made a working worth while PSP emulator.10/30/2014 - 8:10pm
quiknkoldMechatama31, you can get VC2 on the Vita and Vita TV. you have to buy it through PSN on PS3 and transfer it to vita and then playstation tv. I have it on my PS TV and it works10/30/2014 - 7:15pm
MechaTama31I loved Valkyria Chronicles. Still super cheesed off that the sequels were PSP-only... :/10/30/2014 - 6:57pm
ConsterI played Steamworld Dig on the 3DS, and it's pretty fun.10/30/2014 - 6:51pm
Matthew WilsonRECOMMENDED: OS: Windows 7 Processor: Intel Core2 Duo @ 2.8GHz (or equivalent) Memory: 3 GB RAM Graphics: NVIDIA GeForce GTX 280 (or equivalent) Hard Drive: 25 GB available space10/30/2014 - 5:49pm
Matthew Wilsonhere hare the system requirements. make of ithem what you will. MINIMUM: OS: Windows Vista/Windows 7 Processor: Intel Core2 Duo @ 2.0GHz (or equivalent) Memory: 2 GB RAM Graphics: NVIDIA GeForce GTS 240 (or equivalent) Hard Drive: 25 GB available spa10/30/2014 - 5:48pm
Andrew EisenStill a game I really want to play. Hope it's a solid port.10/30/2014 - 5:42pm
Matthew WilsonValkyria Chronicles pc port needs 25ggb. not bad exept this game came out in 08 on the ps3.10/30/2014 - 4:56pm
james_fudgeEZK: my sarcasm senses are tingling ;)10/30/2014 - 4:21pm
Andrew EisenIf it's any consolation, Xbox owners, Wii U owners don't get the game at all. And if we did, we'd probably never get the DLC.10/30/2014 - 4:19pm
MaskedPixelantehttp://kotaku.com/destinys-new-dlc-kinda-screws-over-xbox-players-1652294153 Sucks when the shoe's on the other foot, huh.10/30/2014 - 4:12pm
E. Zachary KnightSo a vocational school in Oklahoma is being evacuated because someone found a briefcase in the bathroom. Imagine that. A briefcase ina school. That's unpossible.10/30/2014 - 3:33pm
prh99Also, Nintendo wants to watch you sleep..for Science! (*in best Cave Johnson voice) http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/10/nintendo-wants-to-watch-you-sleep-for-science/10/30/2014 - 2:47pm
 

Be Heard - Contact Your Politician