Baird Equity Research: Modern Warfare 3 Will Break Records Today

November 8, 2011 -

Analyst Sebastian Colin of Baird Equity Research says that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will break records today. His firm expects Call of Duty to set a new record for first day sales, surpassing last year’s Black Ops, and "taking its place in history as a top-five media property, with Avatar, Titanic, Thriller and Black Ops." Despite the positive outlook on Modern Warfare 3's release, Colin cautions that there might be some near-term risk from lower World of Warcraft subscriber numbers to be reported after the close - even with Activision's shares closing at a three-year high Monday.

Colin says that strong sales of MW3 should help offset declines in WoW. Sales of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 should reach 18-19 million units in Q4, slightly higher than last year. This should generate roughly $1.1 - $1.2 billion in retail sales. Call of Duty: Black Ops exceeded $1 billion at retail last year in Q4, following record day-one sales of 5.6 million units and $360 million in volume.

"Activision will report its Q3 earnings this afternoon; we believe a strong performance by Call of Duty should help offset further declines in World of Warcraft subscriptions, which we still expect will stabilize in the 10-11 million range."

Colin also estimates that October video game sales increased 5 - 10 percent, with Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 performing well and helping to offset declines in second tier software. He also expects that seven of the top 10 console titles are on the Xbox 360, with two on the PS3 and one for Wii.


Comments

Re: Baird Equity Research: Modern Warfare 3 Will Break ...

Heheh, it DID break records- it got cracked on day one.

 
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Wonderkarpthough not strictly games. I have Lightsabers mounted on the wall, and on a shelf you'll see the Infinity Gauntlet, the Ocarina of Time, a Sith Holocron, and some of my Ghostbusters Props11/22/2014 - 8:57pm
Wonderkarpswag of all kinds, Andrew. I'm trying to build a game room as impressive as AVGNs nerd room. I'm also trying to build a coffee table/storage space shaped like a NES Controller11/22/2014 - 8:55pm
E. Zachary KnightI need new controllers for my Gamecube. Its not everyday you can get brand new 1st party controllers.11/22/2014 - 8:51pm
Andrew EisenPredominately figurines or swag of all kinds?11/22/2014 - 8:37pm
WonderkarpI would like a new gamecube controller....but I also just like gaming swag....11/22/2014 - 8:32pm
Andrew EisenI'm just waiting to buy a new Gamecube controller for my Gamecube.11/22/2014 - 7:15pm
Wonderkarphttp://kotaku.com/smash-bros-gamecube-adapters-sold-out-online-prices-g-1662162871 Smash Bros Gamecube adapter sold out, online prices go nuts11/22/2014 - 6:50pm
Andrew EisenI bet there's a lovely comedy of errors surrounding that list's journey to the IGDA's page!11/22/2014 - 6:49pm
Andrew EisenAnd the fact that it was curated by some random person on Twitter should have been another.11/22/2014 - 6:48pm
Andrew EisenYep, it's pretty clear that whoever at the IGDA grabbed that list, didn't look at it first. I think the fact that there's over 10,000 names on it should have been a bit of a red flag.11/22/2014 - 6:44pm
Wonderkarppenguin books is on the list. wow.11/22/2014 - 6:43pm
Wonderkarpthats better, though I'd prefer something a little more than a simple tweet, I'll take it.11/22/2014 - 6:37pm
Andrew EisenKate Edwards' Twitter: "like people, tools are imperfect; we've removed it for now."11/22/2014 - 6:35pm
Andrew EisenHard to say with any certainty but it appears it at least understands the tool didn't do what it thought it did.11/22/2014 - 6:34pm
WonderkarpI've yet to find the IGDA responding too the situation other than deleting a link.11/22/2014 - 6:34pm
Matthew WilsonI hope the IGDA understands why its a mistake, that's all I want.11/22/2014 - 6:33pm
Andrew EisenHeh, lawyering up would be grossly overracting! And really silly. Well, if what the IGDA did say was not enough for you, try contacting them and letting them know how you feel.11/22/2014 - 6:31pm
Wonderkarpall I want is an apology from the IGDA. nothing fancy, not even addressed to me. Just something that says, "We messed up. We're Sorry" thats it. Not exactly those words except Sorry. If I was overreacting, I'd be lawyering up.11/22/2014 - 6:29pm
Andrew EisenI get it, I just think you're taking it the wrong way and overreacting.11/22/2014 - 6:27pm
Wonderkarpatleast Matthew understands why I am miffed at that list11/22/2014 - 6:26pm
 

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