Baird Equity Research: Modern Warfare 3 Will Break Records Today

November 8, 2011 -

Analyst Sebastian Colin of Baird Equity Research says that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will break records today. His firm expects Call of Duty to set a new record for first day sales, surpassing last year’s Black Ops, and "taking its place in history as a top-five media property, with Avatar, Titanic, Thriller and Black Ops." Despite the positive outlook on Modern Warfare 3's release, Colin cautions that there might be some near-term risk from lower World of Warcraft subscriber numbers to be reported after the close - even with Activision's shares closing at a three-year high Monday.

Colin says that strong sales of MW3 should help offset declines in WoW. Sales of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 should reach 18-19 million units in Q4, slightly higher than last year. This should generate roughly $1.1 - $1.2 billion in retail sales. Call of Duty: Black Ops exceeded $1 billion at retail last year in Q4, following record day-one sales of 5.6 million units and $360 million in volume.

"Activision will report its Q3 earnings this afternoon; we believe a strong performance by Call of Duty should help offset further declines in World of Warcraft subscriptions, which we still expect will stabilize in the 10-11 million range."

Colin also estimates that October video game sales increased 5 - 10 percent, with Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 performing well and helping to offset declines in second tier software. He also expects that seven of the top 10 console titles are on the Xbox 360, with two on the PS3 and one for Wii.


Comments

Re: Baird Equity Research: Modern Warfare 3 Will Break ...

Heheh, it DID break records- it got cracked on day one.

 
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SleakerIntel runs LanFest, and actively sponsors other multiple LAN events across the country, just to throw out a couple links on the culture side.10/02/2014 - 12:52pm
NeenekoPlus, it is unusual for a company as large as Intel to take such actions and it indicates there is probably an internal syampthy or cultural overlap with the gaters that bumped their visibility.10/02/2014 - 12:50pm
NeenekoI do not think anyone is suggesting that either intel or gaters should not be able to, but the chain of events is chilling to some.10/02/2014 - 12:48pm
MaskedPixelantehttp://www.wesh.com/news/man-shot-5-times-by-police-to-face-judge-on-firstdegree-murder-charge/28368490 And cops wonder why no one likes them.10/02/2014 - 12:42pm
SleakerIt's up to the companies to determine if they think running their ads on a controversial site may cause more damage to them, the only way they might get this is by feedback.10/02/2014 - 12:37pm
Sleakeropinion to a company on where they run ads.10/02/2014 - 12:36pm
Sleaker@Papa Midnight - Requesting ads get pulled from a site due to not agreeing with their message is not censorship. Funding and voicing your opinion are two completely separate topics. It's completely reasonable for people to voice their10/02/2014 - 12:35pm
Papa MidnightSame here, prh99.10/02/2014 - 12:31pm
prh99I played the first Half Life, haven't bothered with any of two. I like Portal more than Half Life anyway.10/02/2014 - 12:31pm
NeenekoI only got a short way into HL-1, but enjoyed HL-2. Probably because I do not like PC FPS games and HL-2 I got on console.10/02/2014 - 12:28pm
Andrew EisenI have a confession to make: I didn't really care for Half-Life.10/02/2014 - 12:27pm
Papa MidnightI don't think I've used the forums since the Wordpress days.10/02/2014 - 12:13pm
NeenekoI keep forgetting we even have forums.10/02/2014 - 11:48am
ZippyDSMleeA shame we can't have good convos in the forums, seems to me its time to nuke and restart fresh on them.10/02/2014 - 11:45am
Papa MidnightOh, no problem! Just wanted to let you know that it's what we're discussing. By all means, join in!10/02/2014 - 11:36am
E. Zachary KnightNeeneko, No problem. In juicy conversations, key points of discussion get pushed off quickly.10/02/2014 - 11:36am
NeenekoA rather scary censorship. I have known too many people and small companies destroyed by such pressure, so this unnerves me at a pretty personal level.10/02/2014 - 11:36am
NeenekoMy bad, I always have trouble working out what is going on in shoutbox10/02/2014 - 11:34am
Papa MidnightTo a point stated earlier, it very much is a form of indirect censorship. Rather than engage in rhetoric and debate, one side has instead chosen to cut-off opposing viewpoints at the knees and silence them via destroying their means of income.10/02/2014 - 11:28am
Papa MidnightNeeneko: the topic of Intel's dropping of Gamasutra is indeed part of this very ongoing conversation.10/02/2014 - 11:26am
 

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