Much virtual ink has been spilled over Electronic Art's protracted campaign to acquire GTA IV publisher Take-Two Interactive. In the latest news - as GamePolitics reported yesterday - EA has extended its deadline until June 16th.

Variety's Ben Fritz, who pens The Cut Scene blog, yesterday compared EA's takeover bid to the seemingly doomed presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton:

EA staying in this race is a bit like Hillary Clinton staying in it -- only a complete implosion by the opposition could result in a victory.

Although GP is on record as opposing the EA-T2 merger on the grounds that game consumers will inevitably be screwed in the deal, we couldn't disagree more with Fritz's conclusion that EA's campaign is fruitless.

The deal will almost certainly get done, just not at EA's current $25.74 offering price. We note comments made to GamePolitics by Wedbush-Morgan analyst Michael Pachter earlier this month when EA secured a one billion line of credit:

[EA] need[s] to raise around $800 million to complete the [Take-Two] deal [at $25.74]. The extra $200 million is just a cushion, although I suppose it could be construed as how much higher they’re willing to go [for Take-Two]...
 

So, EA needs about 30-33 million shares to acquire a majority stake in T2 and has an extra $200 million to spend on any price increase. That's a potential $5-6 bump, depending upon the exact number of shares. When all is said and done, look for EA to own T2 for $27-28.

Take-Two Interactive is urging stockholders to reject today's extension by EA of its deadline to tender T2 shares at the $25.74 offering price.

Of the extension, Take Two chairman Strauss Zelnick said:

This is the same highly conditional proposal that EA offered Take-Two stockholders on March 13, 2008, which our Board of Directors thoroughly reviewed and unanimously determined to be inadequate and contrary to the best interests of Take-Two’s stockholders. As such, the recommendation of our Board of Directors that stockholders not tender their shares to EA remains unchanged...

Take Two CEO Ben Feder added:

EA’s highly conditional offer fails to compensate our stockholders for our exceptional portfolio of intellectual property... In the last several weeks, our strategy and Take-Two’s value have been vividly demonstrated by... The record-breaking sales performance of Grand Theft Auto IV... We have also just announced an agreement with Universal Pictures to make BioShock, the universally acclaimed hit video game, into a feature film... EA’s proposal undervalues our Company.

GP: The operative phrase around T2 HQ seems to be "highly conditional..."

In a move that will surprise almost no one, Electronic Arts (ERTS) has just issued a press release announcing a 30-day extension of its May 16th deadline to purchase outstanding shares of acquisition target Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). The new deadline will expire at 11:59 p.m. on June 16th.

The most noteworthy point in EA's press release is that the offer price has not changed. There had been speculation that EA would sweeten the numbers, but that hasn't happened - at least, not yet. The announcement quotes Senior VP Owen Mahoney:

Extending our offer will allow the FTC review process to continue. EA's offer price remains unchanged at $25.74 per share and our offer is still subject to conditions that include regulatory approval. As stated earlier, we retain the right to terminate the offer if the conditions are not satisfied.

EA reports that, as of last Friday, it had acquired 6.2 million shares of T2. With about 77m shares of T2 outstanding, EA would need to acquire roughly another 33m shares to acquire a majority position.

Today is the deadline for shareholders of Grand Theft Auto IV publisher Take Two Interactive to accept Electronic Art's tender offer of $25.74.

So, will the deal get done?

Probably not - at least not today. Forbes speculates that EA will extend its deadline. Adding a little sweetener to the offer wouldn't hurt, either.

Oft-quoted Wedbush-Morgan analyst told Forbes that EA screwed up by making its initial offer too high:

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes Electronic Arts started by offering too much for the company. EA could have started its bidding at $22 a share, or $1.7 billion...

 

By publicly starting at $26, then a rich 52% premium, EA must have figured Take-Two would jump at the offer. Zelnick Media was, after all, brought on in 2007 to turn around the faltering Take-Two. Instead, Zelnick stonewalled. "EA didn't know how to react," says Pachter.

Meanwhile, analyst Colin Sebastian told the San Francisco Chronicle:

I think it's more than likely the deal gets hammered out. Maybe it happens at a slightly higher price, but it's good for shareholders.

Should Electronic Arts be successful in its bid to acquire a controlling interest in Grand Theft Auto publisher Take Two Interactive, the merging of the companies could face harsh government scrutiny, reports Newsweek's N'Gai Croal.

Croal serves up a guest post from one of his readers, Justin Blankenship, who formerly worked for the Federal Trade Commission. While with the FTC, Blankenship's assignment was to review potential technology and entertainment mergers for anti-trust violations. Of the EA-T2 situation, Blankenship writes:
 

Although EA's offer may eventually prove too lucrative for Take-Two to pass up, I wouldn't assume that this deal will get a rubber stamp from government antitrust regulators. I'm specifically referring to comments by Wedbush's Michael Pachter, who stated:

"Currently [EA and Take-Two] compete in pro basketball, college basketball and hockey. So by taking out all of that, EA has a monopoly in sports. If these guys have a monopoly, they're not going to cut pricing on sports games as quickly. We've been seeing sports games come down [in price] before Christmas the last couple of years. That'll never happen again."

GP: Blankenship is referring to comments Pachter made to GamePolitics in a report from February 25th. See: Pachter: Sports Drives T2 Deal for EA; GTA is "Gravy". Blankenship explains:

It looks as if this fight could get ugly... 

GamePolitics has just received a press release from Take Two Interactive in response to Electronic Arts' hostile takeover bid.

In the release, the Take Two board confirms EA's offer and pronounces it "inadequate in multiple respects and not in the best interests of Take-Two’s stockholders." From the release:
 

After careful evaluation, the Board has determined that EA's proposal substantially undervalues Take-Two’s robust and enviable stable of game franchises, exceptional creative talent and strong consumer loyalty. 

We believe EA's unsolicited offer is highly opportunistic and is attempting to take advantage of our upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto IV, one of the most valuable and durable franchises in the industry.

Take Two Executive Chairman Strauss Zelnick is quoted:
 

Electronic Arts’ proposal provides insufficient value to our shareholders and comes at absolutely the wrong time... Thanks to the extraordinary efforts of our creative and business teams, Take-Two has made enormous strides in the past 10 months toward our common goal of being the most creative, innovative and efficient company in our industry...

Given the great importance of the Grand Theft Auto IV launch to the value of Take-Two, the Board has determined that the only prudent and responsible course for our Company and its stockholders is to defer these discussions until immediately after Grand Theft Auto IV is released. 

Therefore, we offered to initiate discussions with EA on April 30th, 2008 (the day after Grand Theft Auto IV is scheduled to release).  We believe this offer demonstrated our commitment to pursuing all avenues to maximize stockholder value, while we believe that EA’s refusal to entertain this path is evidence of their desire to acquire Take-Two at a significant discount, whereas we believe this value rightly belongs to our stockholders.

Take Two also sent GamePolitics the text of a series of letters between Zelnick and EA CEO John Riccitiello: